Central Bank considers probability of scenario of oil at $25 /barrel low - Nabiullina
MOSCOW. June 10 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia considers the probability of the realization of a scenario where oil prices are at $25 per barrel low, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said at a press conference on Friday.
"As before, we are reviewing the risk scenario of oil at $25 per barrel. Inflation in this scenario would exceed 6.5%, the decline of GDP would amount to about 1%. We estimate that the probability of such a scenario is low," she said.
She also said that the Central Bank has adjusted the risk scenario from the point of view of inflation. With oil at $25 per barrel, the Central Bank, with a large degree of certainty, will not manage to reach the inflation target of 4% by the end of 2017, inflation then may be higher than 5% and then fall to 4%-4.5% in 2018.