Ruble exchange rate volatility may persist in Q3 at Q2 level - Central Bank
MOSCOW. Aug 29 (Interfax) - Ruble exchange rate volatility may persist in the third quarter of 2016 at the level of the second quarter, the Central Bank said in a financial survey on monetary policy terms.
"Ruble exchange rate volatility continued declining in Q2 2016, mainly facilitated by declining oil price volatility. Ruble exchange rate volatility may continue at the current level in Q3 2016," the Central Bank said.
The Central Bank notes that in exporters stepped up FX sales ahead of dividend-payment season in the second quarter, which reduced exchange rate volatility despite steep fluctuations in the price of oil and increased risk aversion globally.
Exchange rate elasticity amid fluctuating oil prices in Q2 2016 was little changed. "Ruble exchange rate volatility may amount to about 19 percentage points given that oil prices remain at the average level in the second quarter and that market expectations regarding oil price volatility materialize, according to Central Bank estimates," the report says.
The Central Bank also said the vote in favor of the UK leaving the EU (Brexit) and the ensuing temporary decline in investor appetite for risk assets, did not have a significant impact on the ruble exchange rate in the second quarter.