Inflation in Kazakhstan could slow to 5-7% in 2018 at oil price of $40 per barrel - National Bank
ASTANA. Nov 15 (Interfax) - Inflation in Kazakhstan could slow to 5-7% in 2018, the National Bank forecasts.
In a baseline scenario assuming the oil price of $40 per barrel, inflation in Kazakhstan will be within the target band of 6-8% in 2017 and then will smoothly decrease to 5-7% in 2018, the National Bank said in a press release.
The National Bank believes that the main risk of causing higher inflation would be oil prices falling below $30 per barrel during a period before Q2 2018. In these circumstances the National Bank of Kazakhstan would pursue a strict monetary policy until Q2 2018 while an additional risk may arise as a result of the rising state budget non-oil deficit against the targets planned for 2017-18, according to the press release.
The target inflation band for this year is within 6-8%; inflation in Kazakhstan rose to 13.6% in 2015, according to the National Bank.
