Central Bank estimates ruble over-strengthened by 5%-9% mid-May, IMF says in report
MOSCOW. July 10 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia estimates the ruble over-strengthened by 5%-9% in the middle of May, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report following a meeting between an IMF mission and Russian ministers and Central Bank officials.
Oil traded at $50-$54 a barrel in the period May 10-20 and the ruble at 56.2-57.5 rubles/$1. The ruble-price of a barrel of Brent crude averaged at 2,950 rubles. Oil is now trading at around $46.5 and the ruble at around 60.5 rubles/$1, and the ruble price of Brent is just over 2,800 rubles. The ruble's depreciation in the last two months so far lags behind the drop in the price of oil.
The Fund also affirmed its 1.4% GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2017. It earlier said the economy might grow not more than 1.5% in 2018, given its structural constraints, but now it is saying 1.4% growth is possible next year.
The inflation forecast is also unchanged: the IMF thinks the Central Bank's target will be reached this year and that consumer prices will grow 4%.
The IMF mission worked in Moscow from May 10-20 and met with Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and others. The IMF did not say exactly when the mission's meeting with the Central Bank took place.