NBU's forex interventions down, hryvnia weakens in Jan 2026

MOSCOW. Feb 3 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its foreign currency interventions by $14 million, or 0.4% year-on-year to around $3.376 billion in January 2026, whereas the hryvnia's official exchange rate against the U.S. dollar weakened 2.5%, or by UAH 1.2, Ukrainian media reported, citing the statistics published by the regulator.

The NBU cut dollar sales on the interbank market by $202.1 million, or 19% week-on-week to $859.5 million last week.

In the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of currency purchases and sales by legal entities dropped to $95.5 million from $137.6 million for the same period the week before, amounting to $381.8 million in total, the NBU said.

The cash market's negative balance from Saturday to Thursday also decreased to $34 million from $36.4 million the week before last. Sales of non-cash forex were larger than its purchases for all of these days.

The official hryvnia-dollar exchange rate, which began last week at UAH 43.1391/$1, strengthened to UAH 42.7689/$1 in the space of three days, ending the week at the level of UAH 42.8483/$1.

The dollar exchange rate on the cash market followed the trajectory of the official exchange rate, weakening by around 27 kopecks in total over the week. The buy rate was UAH 42.7/$1, and the sell rate was UAH 43.07/$1.

According to experts from KYT Group, a major cash currency exchange market participant, in the short-term, 1-2 weeks, the base corridor is UAH 42.9-43.4/$1, including the risk of fluctuations towards a weaker hryvnia. They expect the exchange rate to stay within UAH 43.5-UAH 44/$1 in the mid-term, which is 2-3 months, and within UAH 43.5-UAH 44.9/$1 in H1 2026.