New Moldovan govt raises country's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.8%
CHISINAU. Dec 4 (Interfax) - Moldova's nominal GDP this year will amount to 351.5 billion lei ($20.1 billion in equivalent), increasing in real terms by 1.8%, according to materials from the Economic Development and Digitalization Ministry under the country's new government, which has been in office since November.
This summer, the previous government lowered its GDP growth estimate from 2% to 1.3%.
According to the ministry's forecast, Moldova's economy will continue to grow in the medium term, taking into account the country's European Union-funded economic growth plan. GDP growth is expected to be 2.4% in 2026 (to 377.2 billion lei/$21.4 billion), 3.3% in 2027 (406.9 billion lei/$22.7 billion) and 3.6% in 2028 (440.2 billion lei/$24.3 billion).
At the same time, the authorities expect an increase in economic potential. "The implementation of Moldova's growth plan will have a positive impact on the country's economic potential. After a long period of constant decline, the country's economic potential is expected to return to a growth trajectory, increasing from 1% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2028," the forecast said.
Economic growth will be supported by positive rates in industrial production and agricultural production. Industrial production growth is planned at 2.8% this year, 3.5% next year and 4.5% and 5.5% in 2027 and 2028, respectively. Agricultural production, according to estimates, will grow 12.2% this year after last year's decline and stabilize at 2% in subsequent years.
Moldova's economic growth is expected amid decreasing inflation, but while maintaining a high deficit in foreign trade.
According to estimates, inflation this year will remain at last year's level and amount to 6.8%. Starting from 2026, the inflation rate will return to the framework of the National Bank's forecast corridor (5% plus-minus 1.5 percentage points) and decrease to 4.6%. In 2027, inflation is expected to be at 4.1% and 5% in 2028.
According to the forecast, the foreign trade deficit this year will increase 25% to $6.88 billion; in the medium term, the deficit will continue to grow and reach $9.13 billion in 2028. Throughout the forecast period, import growth rates will exceed export growth rates. At the same time, it is planned that in nominal terms, exports will grow from an expected $3.77 billion this year to $4.58 billion in 2028. Imports are expected to increase from $10.64 billion this year to $13.71 billion in 2028.
The Economy Ministry considers the main risk for implementing the forecast to be a slowdown in structural reforms and investment projects provided for in the growth plan. "Any delay in implementing reforms or making investments may reduce the effectiveness of planned measures, slow down infrastructure modernization and limit the attraction of private investment, which will lead to a decrease in potential economic growth rates," the forecast said. In addition, the Economy Ministry notes risks of increased regional instability and geopolitical tensions at the global level, as well as the threat of new energy shocks.
According to data from Moldova's National Bureau of Statistics, the country's GDP in H1 2025 showed zero dynamics. In Q2 the economy grew 1.1% year-on-year after shrinking 1.2% in Q1.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts Moldova's GDP growth at 1.7% in 2025 and at 2.2% in 2026; the World Bank expects the country's economy to grow 1.5% this year and 2.7% next year, and the European Commission expects growth of 1.6% and 2.6%, respectively.
Moldova's GDP grew 0.1% in 2024 after growth of 1.2% in 2023 and a decline of 5.9% in 2022.
