National Bank of Kazakhstan holds base rate at 18% as expected
ASTANA. Nov 28 (Interfax) - The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has made the decision to hold the base rate at 18% per annum with a corridor of plus or minus 1 percentage point (pp), the National Bank said in a statement.
Analysts surveyed by Interfax had predicted that the bank would hold the rate.
"The decision is based on the results of the latest forecast round, updated assessments of key macroeconomic indicators and the balance of inflation risks," the regulator said.
Annual inflation in October stood at 12.6% (12.9% in September). Food inflation accelerated to 13.5% (12.7%), and non-food inflation edged up to 11% (10.8%). Services inflation slowed to 12.9% (15.3%) due to administrative reductions in tariffs for regulated housing and utility services.
"Elevated inflation dynamics are emerging amid sustained demand, which exceeds supply systematically. The ongoing secondary effects of tariff reform and the liberalization of the fuel and lubricants market on prices and inflation expectations are having further impact," the National Bank said.
Food inflation remains the main contributor to overall price growth amid persistent distortions in several commodity markets, sustained domestic demand, higher import prices and rising production costs. The contribution of services inflation has decreased but remains notable despite the slowdown. In the non-food segment, price pressures intensified for fuel and pharmaceutical products, the regulator said.
"Furthermore, prices for approximately 80% of goods and services in the consumer basket are rising above the 5% target. All of this points to persistent and widespread price pressure. This inflationary dynamic is intensifying under the influence of fiscal and increasing quasi-fiscal stimulus, as well as elevated consumer demand," it said.
Household inflation expectations rose to 13.6% in October from 13.2% in September. Elevated expectations continue to constrain the disinflation process and heighten price sensitivity to cost and demand shocks.
External inflationary pressures also persist. Global food prices remain elevated. In Russia, inflation-though slowing-continues to exceed the 4% target, prompting the Bank of Russia to maintain hawkish guidance and signal the need for tight monetary conditions.
"Given the moderately tight nature of current monetary conditions, the expected impact of the program and measures to cool demand for consumer lending, the committee's decision is aimed at creating a sustainable disinflationary trajectory," the National Bank said.
On October 10, 2025, the National Bank raised the base rate from 16.5% to 18% per annum. The rate had been 16.5% since March.
The Monetary Policy Committee will announce its next base rate decision on January 23, 2026.
