Ukraine's NBU downgrades GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from 2.1% in 2025, to 2% from 2.3% in 2026

MOSCOW. Oct 23 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded its forecast for economic growth in 2025 to 1.9% from 2.1% in its previous July macroeconomic forecast due to the situation in the energy sector and labor shortages, Ukrainian media reported.

As noted, the forecast for 2026 has also been lowered from 2.3% to 2%.

"In the third quarter of 2025, economic growth, according to NBU estimates, revived due to the intensification of the harvest of early crops, steady consumer demand and a better situation in the energy sector, which persisted until the end of September. The expected increase in budget incentives at the end of the year will support further recovery," NBU Governor Andrei Pyshny was quoted as saying at a press briefing on Thursday.

The NBU predicts that the energy shortage caused by the recent destruction of infrastructure and gas production facilities, along with the continued labor shortage, will significantly limit business activity.

As for expectations for the coming years, the NBU hopes for a moderate acceleration of economic growth due to increased harvests and larger investments in the reconstruction projects and the defense sector.

"Ukraine's further European integration and the economy's gradual return to normal operating conditions will also have a positive impact on investment activity, which, in particular, will be reflected in the stabilization of the situation in the energy sector and the reversal of negative migration dynamics. Considering these factors, the NBU forecasts Ukraine's real GDP growth of 2% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027," Pyshny added.

As reported, Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture Alexei Sobolev said at an Hour of Questions to the government in the parliament on October 10 that the Ukrainian economic growth will persist in the second half of 2025. It will be at the level of 3%-4% in September and October. The Economy Ministry estimates the GDP growth at around 2.5% for 2026.

The World Bank has also downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth to 2% in both 2025 and 2026.