Moldova's Ministry of Economy expects GDP to grow 1.5%-2% per year in 2026-2028

CHISINAU. Sept 3 (Interfax) - The economic growth rate in Moldova in 2026-2028 under the baseline scenario will likely be 1.5%-2%, the country's Ministry of Economy and Digitalization reported, commenting on the updated macroeconomic forecast for the medium term.

"The baseline scenario envisages slow economic growth, at the level of the current economic potential, with annual rates of up to 1.5%-2% amid gradual reforms and a stable international situation," the ministry said.

The Ministry of Economy expects GDP growth in the forecast period to be 2.3% to 3.6% as part of the "moderately optimistic" scenario of socio-economic development. The scenario takes into account the partial implementation of reforms and the inflow of investments envisaged by the growth plan agreed with the European Union worth 1.9 billion euros.

The optimistic scenario envisages fully implementing the growth plan reforms and investments, which should support economic growth over the next three years at 3.1%-4.3%.

Meanwhile, the ministry emphasizes the risks that could hinder the growth of the Moldovan economy in the medium term. Among the key risks, it identified the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine, growth in geopolitical tensions at the global level, a possible recession in countries that are Moldova's main trading partners, the emergence of new energy shocks, domestic political instability in the country and unfavorable climatic conditions.

At the end of July, Moldovan Economy Minister Doina Nistor reported that the ministry had reduced the country's GDP growth forecast to 1.3% for the year from 2% amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region and instability of tariffs in global foreign trade.

In the first quarter, Moldova's GDP fell 1.2%. The country's economy continued to decline at the beginning of this year after contracting 1.3% in the fourth quarter and 1.9% in the third quarter of last year.

In 2024, Moldova's GDP increased 0.1% after growing 1.2% in 2023 and declining 5.9% in 2022.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the country's economy could grow 2.6% in 2026, the European Commission expects growth of 2.8%, the EBRD 3.8%, and the World Bank 2.4%.