Economy Ministry keeps Ukrainian GDP growth forecast at 2.6%-2.7% in 2025

MOSCOW. Aug 4 (Interfax) - The Ukrainian Economy, Environment and Agriculture Ministry has kept the real GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 2.6%-2.7% for now, whereas the National Bank downgraded the forecast from 3.1% to 2.1% last week, Ukrainian media said, citing Minister Alexei Sobolev.

"Our forecast for the 2025 GDP growth is 2.6%-2.7%. We have not updated it just yet. We may update our data by the end of August, when the data for the first half of year is clear," Sobolev told the press on Saturday.

The growth will be higher in the second half of year than it was in the first one, as damage done to the energy sector slowed down the growth in the second half of last year, he said.

Bad weather and drought causes harvest problems this year, but, on the other hand, the defense sector is rapidly developing, Sobolev said.

As reported, the real GDP of Ukraine grew 0.9% in the first quarter of this year, following a 0.1% decline in the fourth quarter of last year. The National Bank of Ukraine estimated the real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 at 1.1% YoY, despite the earlier forecast of 1.6%.

According to the State Statistics Service, the Ukrainian GDP growth slowed down to 2.9% in 2024 from 5.5% in 2023, after the 28.8% fall in 2022, when the crisis began.