CBR lowers 2025 inflation forecast from 7%-8% to 6%-7%

MOSCOW. July 25 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered its inflation forecast for 2025 from 7%-8% to 6%-7%, it follows from the bank's updated macroeconomic forecast.

As before, the bank expects annual inflation to return to the target of 4% in 2026 and stay at this level thereafter.

The CBR said that the current seasonally adjusted price growth had decreased in annualized terms from 8.2% in the first quarter to 4.8% in the second quarter of 2025. It estimated annual inflation at 9.2% on July 21.

"The impact of tight monetary conditions on demand is becoming increasingly evident in decreasing inflationary pressures. The effects of tight monetary policy, including through the ruble appreciation, are more prominently seen in the low growth in prices for non-food products. These effects are becoming gradually evident in decreasing inflationary pressures in the segments of food products and services as well. Price dynamics remain uneven, but the scatter between consumer basket components has slightly narrowed," the bank wrote.

The bank also said that inflation expectations remained high. "This may impede a more sustainable slowdown in inflation," it said.

The CBR took the decision to lower the key rate by 200 basis points to 18% per annum on Friday. This outcome was in line with the consensus forecast.