Soft landing for Russian economy more likely than slump - Central Bank's Tremasov
MOSCOW. April 29 (Interfax) - The "soft landing" scenario where Russian economic growth slows is far more likely than a scenario where it slumps, said Kirill Tremasov, advisor to the Central Bank of Russia's governor.
"One scenario, which is now being called a soft landing, is a good one for the current situation," Tremasov said at the Economy under the High Key Rate conference organized by the Vedomosti newspaper.
The upside of this scenario is that demand slows, the economy catches up with it, price stability is restored and monetary policy is eased. "And we continue to move up along this sustainable [economic growth] path," he said.
The negative scenario is where the Russian economy slumps before returning told Interfax a balanced state.
"We are currently seeing a bigger, much bigger chance of the first scenario playing out," Tremasov said.
He added that a certain slowdown was "a natural, absolutely normal process." after two years of rapid economic growth.
"The choice now is not whether we maintain high growth rates or slow down. It's whether we slow down as price stability returns or inflation remains high but we still slow down," he said.
He said an economic slowdown in 2025 was inevitable. "The economy has in fact deviated from its potential, and needs to return to a balanced growth path. The question is whether we will be able to return to this path without a slump," he said.
The Central Bank said following its April 25 board meeting that it was still forecasting Russian GDP growth at 1.0%-2.0% in 2025 and 0.5%-1.5% and 1.5%-2.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
In its baseline scenario, the Russian Economic Development Ministry forecasts GDP growth in 2025 at 2.5%, as in the September forecast. The ministry lowered its forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2026 slightly to 2.4%, from 2.6% in September. The ministry maintained its forecast for Russian economic growth in 2027 at 2.8%, and expects growth of 3.0% in 2028.
Analysts polled by Interfax in early April predict Russian GDP growth in 2025 at 1.6% and in 2026 at 1.7%.