Ukraine's NBU projects gas imports to grow to $2.9 bln in 2025
MOSCOW. April 28 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) projects gas imports to reach $2.9 billion in 2025, partially funded by international partners.
"On the projected horizon, the output will gradually recover, but it will be insufficient to fully cover the domestic needs of the economy, in particular, those in industry, housing and utilities sector and households," Ukrainian media quoted the NBU's April inflation report as saying.
The regulator expects the need for gas purchases to gradually decline to around $1.1 billion in 2026 and fall to $0.4 billion in 2027.
"The continued electricity shortage and gas production losses will hold back GDP recovery on the projected horizon and increase the dependence of the energy and industrial sectors of the economy on imports, which will generate corresponding price risks that may spill over to consumer prices," the report added.
Considering its own production volumes, Ukraine needs to import 5.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 6.3 bcm of gas before the start of the heating season on November 1, 2025, which will require around $2.5 billion to $3 billion, former head of the Ukrainian Gas Transmission System Operator Sergei Makogon was quoted by the media as saying. By his estimates, at least 9 bcm of reserves (without buffer gas) should be available at the underground gas storage facilities by the start of the next heating season, because this year's experience has shown that it is extremely risky to begin the season with lower reserves, because the reserves dropped to approximately 0.68 bcm at the end of the season.
For his part, member of the Naftogaz Board of Directors and Commercial Director Dmitry Abramovich said in late March that Ukraine needs to import 4.5 bcm to 4.6 bcm of natural gas by November 1 this year.
Naftogaz Group has contracted 1.5 bcm of gas since the start of this year, in particular, 800 million cubic meters (mcm) was urgently imported early this year, 400 mcm will be supplied to the country in preparations for next winter, and Naftogaz has purchased another 300 mcm of LNG from Poland's Orlen. The company is also in talks with the government and international finance institutions to raise 1 billion euros in funding for buying more than 2 bcm of gas.
The guaranteed gas import capacity is approximately 50 mcm per day, therefore, it would take three months to import 4.6 bcm of gas and four months to import 5.6 bcm to 6.3 bcm, provided 100% utilization, which is commercially difficult to achieve, Makogon said.
Hence, he said that to be in time to import the required volumes by November 1, it is required to start importing substantial volumes of gas as early as May.