NBU estimates Ukraine's GDP growth in Q1 at 0.5%
MOSCOW. April 25 (Interfax) - Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) has grown by 0.5% in January-March 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, according to the Inflation Report of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) published on Friday, Ukrainian media said.
"The predominantly stable electricity supply was a significant factor of the economy growth. Thus, the electricity shortage was less than expected in Q1 thanks to warm weather and speedy repairs of capacities and infrastructure," the report said.
The shortage of raw agricultural materials due to low harvests in the past year impeded the operations of the food industry and transport, including export shipments, the report said. Damaged gas production capacities resulted in a production decline and increased demand for gas imports in Q1 of 2025. The staff shortage also impeded the economy's growth.
The NBU expects the GDP growth to remain moderate in 2025. It will be hindered by the consequences of the crisis, in particular, the shortage in the labor market, including due to the remaining negative migration balance, as well as negative impacts of trade confrontations in the world.
"These factors contributed to the worsening of the real GDP growth forecast in 2025 to 3.1% compared to 3.6% in the Inflation Report for January 2025. Going forward, the GDP growth will accelerate owing to the recovery of the investment and consumer activity amid gradual normalization of the economic circumstances and the acceleration of European integration processes," the report said.
The NBU earlier downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth this year to 3.1% from 3.6% in its previous January macroeconomic forecast, from 4.0% to 3.7% next year and from 4.2% to 3.9% in 2027.
As reported, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting estimated the growth of Ukraine's GDP in Q1 of 2025 at 1.1% compared to the same period of 2024.
On March 18, Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko said that the GDP growth for January-February 2025 was estimated at 1.1%.
Earlier, in February, the International Monetary Fund downgraded Ukraine's economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2%-3% by reducing it by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous forecast. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has also downgraded its forecasts for Ukrainian GDP growth in 2025 from 4.7% to 3.5%, the World Bank from 6.5% to 2%, and the NBU from 4.1% to 3.6%, while the 2025 state budget is based on a 2.7% GDP growth forecast.