Ukraine's NBU raises key policy rate forecast for Q4 2025 by 0.9 p.p

MOSCOW. April 17 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts an average key policy rate at 14% per annum in the fourth quarter of this year, while in January the regulator estimated it at 13.1% per annum.

"The NBU's forecast envisages keeping the key policy rate at 15.5% within the next few months and returning to the cycle of interest rate policy easing after passing the peak of the price surge and reducing the risk of inflation consolidation at the double-digit level," Ukrainian media quoted the NBU's statement as saying on Thursday.

Based on the updated schedule of the rate dynamics, its forecast for the third quarter of this year was also raised by 0.9 percentage points to 15.4% from 14.5% in the January forecast.

The NBU now expects the average key policy rate to fall to 13% in the first quarter of next year, to 12.5% in the second quarter and to 11.6% per annum by the end of 2026.