Ukraine should start importing gas in 2025 to avoid possible shortage - expert

MOSCOW. Dec 18 (Interfax) - Former head of the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine Sergei Makagon believes that Naftogaz of Ukraine should start importing gas next year to prevent additional taking of gas from storage facilities before spring.

"Consumption may increase to 130-140 million cubic meters in frosty weather. This includes 54 million cubic meters to be compensated by production, while the rest will be taken from underground gas storage facilities. Such amounts may prove impossible with almost empty storage facilities. Thus, we should think about importing gas during this critical period," Ukrainian media said, quoting Makagon's op-ed in Evropeiskaya Pravda.

He expects an increase in gas consumption this winter compared to the 2023-2024 heating season, including due to an increase in the share of gas generation, by 10% up to 7.37 billion cubic meters and believes that Ukrainian underground gas storage capacities can provide access to 7.79 billion cubic meters of gas.

"This means we have 7.79 billion cubic meters of active gas in storage facilities that can be taken, against 7.37 billion cubic meters of potential consumption. Besides, Moldova will take the gas stored with us. This means there is barely enough gas and Ukraine will come out of the heating season with almost empty underground gas storage facilities," Makagon said.

Naftogaz did not import gas in the spring and summer, when the price was significantly lower than it is now, he said.

"In January and February, the price of gas in Europe is expected to be no less than $480 per thousand cubic meters, which is almost 37% more expensive than Naftogaz could buy in summer. Accordingly, the expenses of the state-owned Naftogaz will increase significantly, and profits and dividends to the budget will fall," Makagon said.

He also believes it is necessary to start importing gas in order to form reserves in underground gas storage facilities for the next heating period of 2025-2026, starting from the end of spring next year.

"Importing should begin already from the end of spring, without postponing it until October, which Naftogaz did this year, because it is physically impossible to import such volumes in a month. Without sufficient intake, we will not get through the 2025/2026 winter," he said.

Ukraine will need to pump in a new 8 billion cubic meters for next winter from mid-April until November 1, 2025, which cannot be done solely from Ukrainian production resources, so it will need to import 2.8 billion - 3.3 billion cubic meters, he said.