Russia could export 3.6 mln tonnes of wheat in Dec - Rusagrotrans

MOSCOW. Dec 2 (Interfax) - Russia could export around 3.6 million tonnes of wheat in December 2024, compared to 4.1 million tonnes a year earlier, according to a forecast from Rusagrotrans's analytical center.

The preliminary estimate for exports in November stands at 4.4 million tonnes of wheat, the center told Interfax. It has been reduced from 5 million tonnes due to lower export rates through Black Sea ports caused by unfavorable weather conditions. Exports stood at 3.49 million tonnes in November 2023.

The data accounts for exports to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

Export bid prices for Russian wheat (12.5% protein) with delivery in November-December remained at around $226 per tonne (FOB) last week, the center said. The price of French wheat dropped $3 over the week to $235 per tonne, German wheat fell $4 to $250 and U.S. wheat also $4 to $245 per tonne.

The wheat futures market declined due to favorable weather conditions, with above normal temperatures and good precipitation levels, in key winter wheat-growing regions. As a result, the proportion of winter wheat in good and excellent condition in the U.S. rose to 55%, exceeding market expectations of 51%, analysts said.

Prices for wheat (grade 4, 12.5% protein) at Russia's deep-water ports rose 650 rubles over the week to 18,200 rubles per tonne (excluding VAT), driven by a sharp weakening of the ruble. At the same time, as of this Wednesday the wheat export duty will increase 676 rubles to 3,696.3 rubles per tonne, and is expected to continue rising due to the anticipated increase in the price index and further ruble depreciation. This is likely to put pressure on procurement prices at ports, analysts forecast.

Prices in shallow ports remained unchanged at 16,300-16,500 rubles per tonne. Last year, prices were 14,150 rubles at deep-water ports and 11,950 rubles at shallow ports.

The domestic wheat market continued to strengthen in the south while remaining stable in the central regions and the Volga region. In the south, wheat prices (Grade 4, 12.5% protein, EXW elevator) rose 600 rubles to 16,000-16,500 rubles per tonne (excluding VAT). Prices in Central Russia remained at 15,200-15,900 rubles, while in the Volga region they stood at 15,000-15,500 rubles per tonne. In Siberia, procurement prices for grade 3 wheat increased 500 rubles, ranging from 10,000 to 16,000 rubles per tonne (EXW elevator, excluding VAT). Feed wheat prices rose to 8,500-10,000 rubles per tonne due to stronger demand.