11 Jul 2024 16:26

Russian current account surplus widened 70% to $40.6 bln in 6M - Central Bank

MOSCOW. July 11 (Interfax) - Russia's current account surplus widened 70% to $40.6 billion in January-June 2024 from $23.3 billion in the same period of last year, according to an estimate published on the Central Bank's website.

The trade surplus for goods widened 19% to $67.8 billion from $56.8 billion.

The current account surplus widened due to the increase in the trade surplus and a reduction in the primary and secondary income deficit, the regulator said in a commentary.

The current account surplus was $4.7 billion in June 2024, down 25% from $6.3 billion in May, due to a lower surplus for trade in goods, however it was 2.4 times the $2 billion seen in June 2023.

The June trade surplus fell 16% to $10.6 billion, from $12.6 billion in May - the May estimate was revised up for exports and lowered for imports to reflect incoming Federal Customs Service data. The June surplus was up 18% from $9 billion in the same month last year.

Estimate of key Russian balance of payment aggregates in 6M 2024, $ bln:

H1 YoY June MoM YoY Current account 40,6 74% 4,7 -25% 135% Goods 67,8 19% 10,6 -16% 18% Exports 205,7 -1% 34,1 -8% -1% Imports 137,9 -9% 23,6 -4% -7% Services -16,8 2% -3,7 12% 9% Exports 20,0 -1% 3,5 9% -3% Imports 36,8 0% 7,2 11% 3% Balance on primary and secondary income -10,4 -39% -2,2 -27% -41% Receivable 18,7 -22% 3,1 -11% -37% Payable 29,1 -29% 5,3 -18% -38%

The total deficit in primary and secondary income fell to $10.4 billion in H1 2024 from $17 billion a year previously, which was affected by both the non-residents' withdrawals from the Russian companies' equity and the reduction in personal transfers payable.

Foreign assets increased by $41 billion in H1 2024 compared with $17.3 billion growth a year earlier due inter alia to increased lags in settlements for foreign economic activities and the growth in other investment.

The reduction in external liabilities slowed to $6.4 billion in H1 2024 from $7 billion in H1 2023, mainly associated with the reduction in liabilities on raised loans, including within the framework of direct investment relationship, as well as on payments of dividends.

The Central Bank's baseline scenario, last updated in April and to be updated again on July 26, assumes that if Brent crude trades at $85 per barrel there will be a current account surplus of $50 billion, visible trade surplus of $121 billion, deficit in services trade of $31 billion and primary and secondary incomes deficit of $39 billion in 2024.